Day 365-2011 : Adieu...

Adieu to a remarkable year.  A year in which the power of collective action was demonstrated time and again.  Throughout the year.  If there was one word which could correctly encapsulate the tone of the entire year of 2011, it was revolution.

2011 will be remembered as the year in which the clamor for change was heard the loudest.  People protested against everything.  From atrocities of dictators to the corruption of politicians; from women objecting to being branded as sluts based on how they dressed to people objecting to the social and economic inequality by occupying Wall Street.  Some of these were highly successful, but some weren't so.  The world today is definitely a different place after the Arab Spring.  The ouster of at least four dictators till date and a few more under siege are clear signs of people embracing the path of non-violent protests...and winning.  I grew up on news reports of the violent struggles in Lebanon and Palestine.  I grew up on reports of Pakistan attacking the sovereign borders of this country. Over the years I have watched the various extremist actions by Islamic groups across the world.  However, in 2011, it was so refreshing to see the Islamic populace adopting non-violence as the core principle of their protests across the world.  Of course, the perennial mascot of Islamic violence himself, Osama-bin-Laden, was killed this year.

Closer home, the story has been much the same.  One scam after another being unearthed by the activism of the media and the judiciary, and people in high places of power being held responsible for it, gave the common man in India a common cause to fight against, corruption.  True, corruption was not invented this year and it was certainly not discovered by Anna Hazare.  Anna and the India Against Corruption movement just grabbed the opportunity created by the prevailing mood of disillusionment caused by the multiple scams.  It was an amazing movement with a momentum of its own, causing the government of the day to grumble, mumble, stumble and tumble for one reason or the other on a daily basis.  For once the might of a government in power was dwarfed by a people's movement and was found wanting.  It was like a rabbit caught in the headlights, not withstanding the feeble, and sometimes questionable, attempts at redemption by its favorite crisis managers.

The financial services industry was not only hit by world-wide recession but also people power.  Beginning in Wall Street, groups of activists protested against the greed of the financial services sector which has ruined many economies, across the major financial centers in the world.  Occupy Dalal Street was also on the schedule, but the protest lasted for less than an hour when the 40 odd protesters were bundled off to preventive custody!  Typical of Mumbai, nobody could care less.  The looming crisis in Europe has caused discontent among its citizens as well.  People across the various countries comprising the European Union protested, either against the imposed austerity measures or against the funding of weaker countries in the union.  

However, the one common thread across all of this has been uncertainty.  The situation in Europe is still very uncertain, so is the case with the India Against Corruption and its movement for the Lokpal Bill.  Some of the Arab countries which were 'liberated' from the clutches of the various dictators, are still grappling with the problem of finding viable alternatives.  This sense of uncertainty will, I think, be the biggest challenge for the new year.  Clearly, the year 2012 is going to be a difficult one for the world, with the financial crisis and slowdown showing no signs improvement.  Political stress across the world can only contribute to it and make it worse.  Did somebody say that the world is coming to an end in 2012 as well?

Personally, it is time again for me to review my resolutions and goals which I set for myself at the beginning of the last year.  With that objective, I did go through my post on this blog on the first day of 2011.  Having read through it, I find that, all that I have listed there, are still valid resolutions and goals.  Not that I haven't achieved any of them.  I feel that I have made significant progress on most of them, however, I realize that I could do more.  Also, I am ending the year with a tick in the box for something that I have always wanted to do...a road trip to Ahmedabad from Mumbai!  I loved the 8 hour drive and am gearing up for the drive back tomorrow.

So, there you go...my resolutions for the coming year are not very different from those that I made at the beginning of the last year.  Which was the case last year as well!  After all isn't this blog all about the sense of Deja Vu?!

Finally, I wish you and your loved ones a happy, healthy and prosperous 2012.  For those of you who plan to party hard tonight to ring in the new year, please do so responsibly and have a great time!

Take care!

Day 361-2011 : Why This Kolaveri Di?

Precisely my point u ....why?  

Why the kolaveri over u Kolaveri?  The song u which comes across as a spontaneous, casual and  a light-hearted recording u of some u silly Tanglish (Tamil & English) lyrics u over a lazy afternoon, has now become not only a national u, but an international u sensation u!  There are at least u ten versions u of the song u in various other Indian u languages.  I have also seen the Japanese do aerobics u to the Kolaveri beats u, there is an English R & B version u, there is a Bhangra Pop version u and God knows u how many more u!?!?  Last u heard u, Sony, the music label that owns the music rights u, was planning to get some  u official remixes out soon u!

So, what works for this song u?  First and foremost u, the power u of viral marketing u by leveraging the social u media!  It has won u the YouTube u Gold award u, with more than 27 million hits u for the video and counting u.  Various versions of the song u have been 'shared' u on Facebook u by about 7.5 million people.  All of these facts u show us the might of the social u media and what can be achieved if it is used u cleverly.  Within a few days u of its launch u, the song u became an internet u sensation and was perhaps u the only Tamil song u that I have heard u on FM stations u in Mumbai.  It has been featured u  on news channels u and music stations u across the globe!  All of this u, even before the music album u of the film was 'officially' released u....and, this is the best u part, at zero marketing spend u!  Do I see case studies u being made at the IIMs?

Secondly, the product itself u is good.  The 'kuuthu' beats u work u wonderfully well u with the silly Tanglish lyrics u that Dhanush himself has penned u.  Kuuthu music in Tamil films u, can almost always be banked upon u to deliver a catchy number u, this one has just found u resonance worldwide u.  The silly lyrics u, as Dhanush himself calls them, works u for the audience u, notwithstanding Javed Akhtar's u views u on them!  I saw the video after a couple of days u of its release u on social media, when someone shared u it on one of the groups u that I am a member of, on Facebook u.  I liked u it instantly!  I couldn't help but u share it on my wall u.  To me what sounds good u is good enough.  The almost casual atmosphere u seen in the video of the song recording u, suits itself u perfectly well to be marketed u through the 'casualness' u of social media.  The colloquial Tanglish u with a distinct accent u is a good do as well.  It appears u that Dhanush, Aniruddha u, Aishwarya and Shruti were having u a lot of fun making u the song u.  And, of course u, the wide toothed u innocence of Dhanush's smile works u with the girls u!

Last u, but not the least u, as most of his fans u would have worked u it out by now u, the song u works because it has  Rajini connect u!  It is also rumoured u that the superstar u is going to feature u in a special appearance u for this song u in the movie.  

Looks like Rajinikanth knows u why this kolaveri di!  Should I be surprised u?

Please take care u!

Day 340-2011 : Coming soon...Eurogeddon?

It has been on the slow boil for some time and there is every possibility now, that it might just boil over.  The failure of the politicians in Europe combined with the toothless actions of the European Central Bank has ensured that we are probably very close to witnessing the death of the unified currency, Euro.  There are however many who still believe that it is simply inconceivable that the Euro might break up, mostly politicians and their side-kicks.  Must I remind that the sovereign debt crisis which is at the root of this existential question for the Euro, has already resulted in a few governments being evicted.  It is certainly time to seriously take a look at what went wrong and what are the options now. 

What went wrong?

One size cannot fit all.  One currency with 17 different economies, the fundamentals of every economy being different due to the unique mix of resources that they have.  The fiscal and the monetary policies, which drive the management of these resources towards continuous growth and development also did not have any commonality even after the single currency came into effect at the turn of the century.  The stronger core countries like Germany and France used the compromised parameters of the new currency to push their exports contributing to actual GDP growth.  The other peripherals, namely Greece, Ireland, Spain, etc. bungled fiscally under the false impression of a strong currency and overspent to put themselves on the same growth path as others in the union.  The result:  Huge globs of sovereign debt, which these countries are finding increasingly difficult to service.  The expectation is that the stronger (and richer) countries help pay off the debt of the weaker ones.  However, the baker in Frankfurt will now ask his government as to why should he pay for the sins of his 'European' colleague in Athens.  At least the governments of the stronger countries fear so.  Quite justifiably so.

What are the options?

Businesses world-wide are already making contingency plans and running stress tests on the various possible scenarios.  So what are the options?  There are numerous permutations possible, however, broadly, there are three:

1) A Partial Breakup:  It is widely speculated that this is the most likely scenario which might play out.  The withdrawal or expulsion of the peripheral, weaker countries like Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain from the unified currency.  For the stronger countries and the advocates of the continued unified currency, this might be their best option.  It will however have severe consequences.  The change will have to be controlled, failing which this can snowball into a free for all.  The weaker countries do not have a choice.  They will have to implement severely restrictive austerity measures if they have to continue in the union.  They will also have to brace for a severe devaluation of their new currency if they pull-out of the union.  It is a choice between the devil and the deep sea.  There is the probability of returning to long term sustainable growth, however, to get there these countries will have to make innumerable sacrifices and prepare for the worst, including a run on the entire banking system of the country.

2) Full Euro Breakup:  The full blow-up could have major consequences across the globe.  It is very obvious that any exposure (by means of a financial or non-financial contract) to the Euro will mean instant impact.  The failure of one of the major currencies in the financial markets most certainly will have a domino effect on all asset classes.  EU is a major export market for the US as well as many emerging Asian economies like India, Thailand and China.  The denomination of the Euro into 17 different new currencies will bring with it the currency risk of severe devaluation / revaluation.  This is apart from the logistical challenge of creating (printing, valuing & distributing) a new currency overnight; remember, the member countries had almost a decade to plan for the common unified currency.  Clearly, this is the worst case scenario, and it will take down more than the European Union countries with it.  Major economies across the world will feel the pinch and may even be driven into a prolonged recession.

3) Do Nothing; Maintain Status Quo:  This is what has happened till date.  We are living this scenario right now, thanks to the prolonged procrastination of the leaders of the European countries.  However, this scenario is clearly not sustainable.  The idea of robbing Paul to pay Peter is not sound economics.

Whatever be the outcome of the unique situation that the world finds itself in today, there will be plenty to learn from Europe's expensive experiment with a unified currency.  The Afro....and the Asio (?!?), beware!

Take care!